The Fourth Turning and a generation in Crisis

Relevance

This article explores how the experiences and values of each generation fundamentally shape the fabric of our society, influencing everything from economic prosperity to social norms and political landscapes. Appreciating the cyclical nature of generational impacts can help us understand the forces that shape our lives and our world, and recognise the positive impact we can have on societal evolution.

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A generational perspective

“Remember to bring home your lunch wrap,” said Mum as she handed me my sandwiches. White bread,  bland cheese and wilted lettuce, held together in waxed ‘lunch wrap’ paper. The staple diet for school lunch. I never understood why a crumpled scrap of cheap paper, torn from a roll that could wrap a thousand lunches, could not be thrown away. Secretly secreting used lunch wrap, to use again tomorrow, felt embarrassing. It cried ‘poor’ to anyone who noticed, as did the hand-made and hand-me-down clothes we wore.

But my parents were not poor. They were frugal. The notion of throwing something away while it remained useful was completely alien to them. They seemed to come from a far country: a ‘silent generation’, who grew up during a world war, with a strong work ethic, prepared to sacrifice everything for family, friends and the future. “Waste not, want not” was their motto. String, wrapping paper, cloth offcuts, could be turned as if by magic into wonderful gifts.

Generational cycles and the Fourth Turning

Neither my parents nor I realised that they were part of what the researchers Strauss and Howe called a High period, contributing to economic prosperity and strong civil society. Strauss and Howe are two American authors and historians who devised a theory about the impact of the historical moment in which you grow up, and how that shapes your behaviour, which then in turn shapes the next generation. Their Fourth Turning theory posits that societies experience cycles of roughly 80 to 90 years, divided into four “turnings”: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis. Each turning corresponds to a generational mood and societal phase, ultimately culminating in a Crisis period, and a Fourth Turning, that leads to the establishment of a new order and the beginning of a new cycle.

I was born at the tail end of the boomer generation, during the transition to the Awakening phase. And what an awakening it was, as this generation marched not to war but for peace, and made love not in silence but in protest. The counterculture movement of the 1960s is one of the better known socio-cultural markers. I grew up during this time of social upheaval, as institutional power gave way to individual agency, and command and control models fell out of favour. My millennial children, growing up during the Unraveling, witnessed cultural fragmentation while becoming the first digital natives. I recall looking for a bus schedule, and my son finding it online. Contrast that with the connected generation Z, growing up during a time of crisis: the aftermath of 9/11, the global financial crisis, a global pandemic. While technology pervades their life, so too does fear and anxiety about the world they inhabit and inherit.

So we see how each generation is shaped by their milieu, and so enters adulthood with values, outlooks and capabilities that foster change—a ‘turning’—in the economic, social and political spheres. NS Lyons summarises:

hard times create strong people, strong people create good times, good times create weak people, weak people create hard times.

Repetition and turbulence

There are two important aspects of Strauss and Howes’s work, beyond the obvious statement that the values of a generation shape the culture. First, the circularity and repetition of cultures, and, second, the chaos and turbulence of the fourth turning, the Crisis phase.

Understanding the cyclical nature of generational impacts allows us to see ourselves not just as products of our time, but as architects of the future.

Their perspective on the cyclical nature and generational shifts explains my own family history. They trace the most recent four turnings, starting with the boom period following WW II, as society emerged from chaos and faced the future together with vigour and confidence. A generation later they note an increased focus on the individual, on awakening and enlightenment, flowing through to a desire to change society; to overthrow norms and establish something new. Institutional trust continues to decline into the next generation, and individuals become more self-centred. Ultimately, the search for the authentic self fractures society as each person becomes their own arbiter of truth and reality, which in turn gives rise to conflict as power, and sometimes violence, become the means of collective influence. The seeds of conflict and collapse begin to germinate.

While all turnings are marked by turmoil, the Fourth Turning, in particular, can be tumultuous. Consider this prophetic quote from Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning—long before the emergence of the current political rivalry and discontent:

Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression in World War II. The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.

How prescient those words seem.

Who, five years ago, could have predicted Presidential hopeful Donald Trump suggesting there will be a bloodbath if he is not re-elected. While those remarks may be appalling, the Fourth Turning theory helps us understand Trump as a product of the times, validating the misery of the masses. It helps us understand that avoidance of conflict lies not in avoidance of one man, but in caring for a generation in crisis. 

However, we have a reason for hope: the sun will rise again, as a generation of leaders emerge from within the conflict. Our job is to help them survive. Their job is to help society thrive on the other side. What might become the Resilient Generation will be shaped by how society rebuilds and redefines itself in the aftermath of the current turmoil, and they in turn will shape society, potentially creating a new High in the repetitive cycle.

As I reflect on the repetitive cycles, and remember recycling everything, a thread emerges: what matters is to value not what is in our hands, nor what we use, but who is in our hands, who we stand with and for, as we navigate this historical moment.

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Practical Response

With this understanding of generational impact and the Crisis period of the Fourth Turning, here are three practical steps you might take:

1. Foster conversation across the generations: Start with your own family. Ask your parents and grandparents, your children and grandchildren, what were the major defining historical events of their childhood, and how that shaped their values and thinking. Ask how this contrasts with other generations.

2. Learn about the different generations: Consider how what appears to be a generation gap is driven by a cultural and historical environment. Spend time with someone from each of the generations to discover their characteristics and strengths, challenges and perspectives.

3. Prepare for the Fourth Turning: given the possible tumult of the turning, it makes sense to foster personal and professional resilience, to cultivate strong and reliable relationships, and to develop social networks that can be sources of support during difficulty.